Tinubu and Nigeria’s Economic Crossroads: Navigating the Present Crisis

President Bola Tinubu is starting to look like a poor economic manager as widespread skepticism sweeps across the economy less than a month into a year, a situation many pointed to as a turning point in the failing economy.

Nigeria, a nation with a rich cultural heritage and vast economic potential, is currently facing economic challenges that demand thoughtful leadership and strategic solutions. In the midst of this economic crisis, one political figure who has been at the forefront of discussions is Bola Ahmed Tinubu. A seasoned politician and former governor of Lagos State, Tinubu’s influence on Nigeria’s political landscape has led many to question how he might contribute to steering the country through its current economic hardships.

Understanding Nigeria’s Economic Crisis:

Before delving into Tinubu’s potential role, it’s crucial to comprehend the gravity of Nigeria’s economic crisis. The nation is grappling with a combination of factors, including fluctuating oil prices, a burgeoning population, high unemployment rates, and inadequate infrastructure. These challenges have contributed to slow economic growth and increased poverty levels, requiring strategic interventions to stimulate recovery.

Tinubu’s Economic Policies and Past Achievements:

Bola Tinubu, often referred to as the “Jagaban of Borgu,” is renowned for his role in transforming Lagos State during his tenure as governor from 1999 to 2007. His administration focused on infrastructure development, economic diversification, and attracting investments. These policies resulted in Lagos becoming an economic powerhouse and a model for other states.

Tinubu has expressed his commitment to implementing similar policies at the national level, advocating for economic reforms, job creation, and improved governance. His political influence within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) positions him as a potential key player in shaping Nigeria’s economic future.

Potential Contributions of Tinubu in Tackling the Crisis:

1. Economic Diversification: Tinubu has emphasized the importance of diversifying Nigeria’s economy away from its heavy reliance on oil. His past success in Lagos suggests a commitment to promoting sectors such as agriculture, technology, and manufacturing, which could contribute significantly to economic stability.
2. Infrastructure Development: Recognizing the correlation between robust infrastructure and economic growth, Tinubu could champion initiatives aimed at improving Nigeria’s roads, energy supply, and telecommunications. Adequate infrastructure is vital for attracting investments and fostering business growth.
3. Job Creation: Unemployment remains a critical issue in Nigeria, particularly among the youth. Tinubu’s focus on job creation through skill development programs, entrepreneurship support, and collaboration with the private sector could address this challenge and stimulate economic activity.
4. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Drawing from his experience in transforming Lagos into an economic hub, Tinubu could leverage his political influence to attract foreign investments. A strategic approach to FDI could inject much-needed capital into key sectors, fostering growth and development.

If the current administration fails in its promise to reverse the downward macroeconomic trend to give hope to millions of Nigeria who are struggling to pick their bills, it will be a traumatic contradiction of Tinubu’s rating at last year’s pool as a good economic manager.

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In the face of daunting challenges, there seems to be too many missing links in the technical arm of economic management to articulate a cohesive policy thrust.

For one, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) under Yemi Cardoso, who took the reins exactly four months ago, has carried on the task of monetary and credit policy intervention without inputs from independent members of the rate-fixing Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

Already, the odds are rising against the national economic managers. Last week, naira, which was among the three top worst-performing currencies last year after losing 49 per cent of its value at the official market, printed its weakest value trading around N1370/$.

The local currency closed 2022 at N461.5/$1, but slipped to N907.11 against dollar at the close of last year’s business, making it the third worst-performing currency behind the Lebanese pound and Argentina peso.

The currency plunged after the long-awaited exchange rate liberalisation policy was tested but some analysts dismissed the sharp depreciation as a short-term shock.

Seven months into the new regime, naira continues to falter at both the parallel market and the newly coined Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Rate (NAFEX). January, which many analysts said could mark the beginning of a more stable naira, has set a higher moving average (MA) with the local currency consistently flirting with N1,100/$ mark. Last week, it closed at N891.04/$, a modest appreciation from the January high of N957.51/$.

The recent spot exchange rate of naira, which is far above the year’s post-reform average, raised worry among end-users and analysts.

The broken link may be robbing the Central Bank of the benefit of institutional memory, which may come in handy at this critical time of its task. Whereas the committee has not been officially dissolved, the CBN has assumed the old composition is gone with the embattled ex-CBN boss, Godwin Emefiele, some of whom still have three years to the end of their statutory tenure.

As Nigeria grapples with its current economic crisis, the role of leaders like Bola Tinubu becomes pivotal in steering the nation towards recovery. While he has a track record of success at the state level, the challenges facing Nigeria require comprehensive and innovative strategies. Tinubu’s ability to translate his past achievements into a national context and his commitment to economic diversification, infrastructure development, job creation, and attracting investments will play a crucial role in determining his impact on Nigeria’s economic future. As citizens and stakeholders watch closely, the hope is that leaders like Tinubu can contribute to shaping a more prosperous and resilient Nigeria.